Managing in Uncertain Times: The Leadership Practice of Not Knowing

By: Bego Lozano, PCC

Uncertainty has become our companion in leadership. In nearly every conversation with leaders, I hear the same underlying tension: the search for certainty in times when none exists. We're witnessing political shifts, economic volatility, technological disruption, and organizational transformation happening simultaneously. Leaders tell me they feel like they're navigating in fog, making decisions with incomplete information, and struggling to provide the clarity their teams expect.

When faced with uncertainty, our instinct is to grasp for control, to find the one right answer, to eliminate ambiguity. But this very instinct often keeps us stuck.

The Certainty Trap

We've been trained from early childhood to search for certainty. Our educational systems reward the right answers. Our organizational cultures often promote leaders who appear confident and decisive. And this conditioning creates a trap in uncertain times.

When we desperately seek certainty, we inadvertently close off our options. We rush to premature conclusions, make decisions with insufficient information, or worse: we become paralyzed, waiting for clarity that may never come. The leaders who insist on having all the answers before moving forward often find themselves left behind by those willing to navigate and engage with ambiguity.

I'm observing leaders who've mastered technical skills and built successful careers suddenly feeling inadequate because they can't predict outcomes the way they used to. They're experiencing what psychologists call "expertise reversal" - when accumulated knowledge becomes less helpful in novel situations.

A Different Relationship with Not Knowing

The most effective leaders I work with have discovered something counterintuitive: engaging with uncertainty rather than trying to eliminate it opens up better possibilities. They've learned to distinguish between what we don't know and what we can't know. This distinction changes everything.

What we don't know includes information we could potentially gather: market research, customer feedback, competitive analysis. This is territory we can explore and learn about.

What we can't know encompasses the truly unknowable: how emerging technologies will reshape industries, how geopolitical events will unfold, how human behavior will evolve. This is territory that requires accepting we may never have answers.

Richard Feynman, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, captured this beautifully: "If you know what you are not sure about, you have a chance to improve the situation."

Acknowledging uncertainty becomes the starting point for better leadership rather than a weakness to hide.

The Art of Productive Questions

The questions we ask in uncertain times show how we really feel about not knowing. I've noticed two distinct patterns in my conversations with leaders:

Fear-based questioning sounds like:

• "What if we're wrong?"

• "How can we avoid making mistakes?"

• "What's the guaranteed path to success?"

These questions, while natural, are rooted in a desire to eliminate uncertainty rather than engage with it. They tend to narrow our thinking and push us toward premature closure.

Curiosity-based questioning sounds different:

• "What might we be missing?"

• "What would need to be true for this to work?"

• "What's the smallest experiment we could run to learn more?"

Notice how these questions open up possibilities rather than closing them down. They invite exploration rather than demanding immediate answers.

Finding Clarity in the Next Step

Leaders often find this incredibly freeing: taking the next right step doesn't require knowing the final destination. In fact, becoming too attached to a specific outcome can blind you to better opportunities that emerge along the way.

Herbert Simon's concept of "satisficing" suggests that in complex situations, we often make better decisions by seeking solutions that are "good enough" rather than optimal. This approach allows leaders to move forward while remaining open to course corrections.

I work with leaders who've learned to develop directional clarity: being clear about values and general direction while remaining flexible about the specific path.

Sometimes, the right next step is actually doing nothing, and thus creating space for more information to emerge, allowing situations to develop, or giving teams time to process change. This requires tremendous leadership courage because our bias toward action makes strategic waiting feel like inaction.

Curiosity Versus Fear in the Unknown

Our need to know comes from different places. Sometimes our need-to-know stems from healthy curiosity, that is, a genuine interest in learning and understanding. This leads to exploration, experimentation, and discovery.

But often, especially in high-pressure situations, our need to know is rooted in fear: fear of making mistakes, fear of appearing incompetent, fear of losing control. This fear-based approach leads to anxiety, rushed decisions, and missed opportunities.

Engaging with Ambiguity as a Practice

When we find ourselves in ambiguous situations, we can ask:

·         "What do I not know?"

·         "What more can I not know?"

·         "What helps me sit with uncertainty?"

These questions, developed by Barbara Schaetti, Sheila Ramsey, and Gordon Watanabe in their work on Personal Leadership, help us stay present with the unknown rather than rushing to premature closure.

The Creative Power of Open Space

Here's what I've observed: uncertainty, when approached with the right mindset, becomes a catalyst for creativity. When we don't know what to do, we're forced to think differently. We consult different sources, consider unconventional options, and often discover innovative solutions we would never have found if we'd rushed to certainty. We widen our lens and open up new possibilities.

Some of the most breakthrough moments I've witnessed in organizations happened because teams embraced not knowing rather than despite it. Teams that stayed curious often found more elegant solutions than those that forced premature answers.

Living in the Liminal Space

The ancient Greeks had a word—limnos—which gave us the Latin limnen and eventually the English concept of liminality.

Anthropologists tell us that liminal spaces, while uncomfortable, are where transformation happens. They're the incubator for what comes next, the creative void from which new possibilities emerge. Leaders who learn to navigate these threshold spaces with grace often find they're where their greatest growth occurs.

The question becomes how to inhabit these spaces skillfully rather than how to eliminate them; they're an inevitable part of leadership in complex times.

What Happens When You Release the Need to Know?

I invite you to consider an experiment: What would happen if you released your need to know, just for a moment? What if you approached your next challenge with genuine curiosity about what might emerge rather than pressure to have answers?

In my experience, leaders who make this shift often discover:

• Increased creativity: Without the pressure to know, they think more broadly and consider unconventional options.

• Better relationships: Teams feel safer contributing ideas when leaders admit they don't have all the answers.

• More resilience: When you're not attached to specific outcomes, you adapt more quickly to changing circumstances.

• Greater learning: Uncertainty becomes a teacher rather than an enemy.

Practical Steps for Leading in Uncertainty

Here are some practical approaches to get you started:

1. Normalize not knowing: Start meetings by acknowledging what you don't know. Model intellectual humility for your team.

2. Ask better questions: Shift from "What's the right answer?" to "What questions should we be asking?"

3. Create learning experiments: Instead of making big bets on uncertain outcomes, design small experiments that generate learning quickly.

4. Practice engaging with ambiguity: Use the three questions from Personal Leadership methodology to stay present with uncertainty.

5. Focus on your next right step: Ask yourself, "What's the smallest step I can take that moves us in a positive direction?"

6. Distinguish between curiosity and fear: When you feel the urge to know something, pause and identify the underlying emotion.

The Leadership Opportunity

We're living through times that demand a different kind of leadership - one that can navigate complexity without oversimplifying, make decisions without complete information, and inspire confidence while acknowledging uncertainty.

This requires developing comfort with not knowing and the ability to read the difference between productive and unproductive uncertainty, to engage with ambiguity as a source of possibility rather than paralysis.

The leaders who thrive in the years ahead won't be those who have all the answers. They'll be those who ask the best questions, who can sit with not knowing long enough for better solutions to emerge, and who can help their teams navigate uncertainty with curiosity rather than fear.

What I find most encouraging is that these skills can be developed. Uncertainty tolerance strengthens with practice. Every time you resist the urge to force premature closure, every time you ask a question that opens rather than closes possibilities, you're building your capacity to lead in uncertain times.

The question becomes whether you'll learn to dance with uncertainty or exhaust yourself fighting against it. In my experience, the dance is both more effective and far more interesting.

At SZH Consulting, we partner with organizations and leaders to build the capabilities and resilience needed to lead effectively in times of change and uncertainty. Our executive coaching and leadership development programs equip leaders with the clarity, confidence, and practical tools to navigate complexity, make sound decisions under pressure, and sustain high performance - without sacrificing their well-being. Because organizations thrive when their leaders have the strength and adaptability to care for themselves while inspiring and guiding others. If you’re ready to strengthen your leadership bench and position your organization to succeed in any environment, let’s connect!